000			03177nam a2200289za04500
001			17399
008			050703s2011 xxk eng d
020			_a9781849961875 99781849961875
082			_a658.56 _b223
100			_aKelly, Dana. _eauthor. _934189
245			_aBayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment _h[electronic resource]: _bA Practitioner's Guidebook / _cby Dana Kelly, Curtis Smith.
300			_aXII, 225p. 98 illus., 40 illus. in color. _bonline resource.
490			_aSpringer Series in Reliability Engineering
490			_x-1614-7839
505			_a1. Introduction and Motivation -- 2. Introduction to Bayesian Inference -- 3. Bayesian Inference for Common Aleatory Models -- 4. Bayesian Model Checking -- 5. Time Trends for Binomial and Poisson Data -- 6. Checking Convergence to Posterior Distribution -- 7. Hierarchical Bayes Models for Variability -- 8. More Complex Models for Random Durations -- 9. Modeling Failure with Repair -- 10. Bayesian Treatment of Uncertain Data -- 11. Bayesian Regression Models -- 12. Bayesian Inference for Multilevel Fault Tree Models -- 13. Additional Topics.
520			_aBayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment provides a Bayesian foundation for framing probabilistic problems and performing inference on these problems. Inference in the book employs a modern computational approach known as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The MCMC approach may be implemented using custom-written routines or existing general purpose commercial or open-source software. This book uses an open-source program called OpenBUGS (commonly referred to as WinBUGS) to solve the inference problems that are described. A powerful feature of OpenBUGS is its automatic selection of an appropriate MCMC sampling scheme for a given problem. The authors provide analysis "building blocks" that can be modified, combined, or used as-is to solve a variety of challenging problems.The MCMC approach used is implemented via textual scripts similar to a macro-type programming language. Accompanying most scripts is a graphical Bayesian network illustrating the elements of the script and the overall inference problem being solved. Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment also covers the important topics of MCMC convergence and Bayesian model checking.Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment is aimed at scientists and engineers who perform or review risk analyses. It provides an analytical structure for combining data and information from various sources to generate estimates of the parameters of uncertainty distributions used in risk and reliability models.
650			_aEngineering. _996
650			_aEngineering. _996
650			_933838 _aSTATICS FOR ENGINEERING, PHYSICS, COMPUTERS SCIENCE, CHEMISTRY AND EARTH SCIENCES
650			_933582 _aSYSTEMS SAFETY
650			_91521 _aQUALITY CONTROL, REABILITY, SAFETY AND RISK.
700			_aSmith, Curtis. _934190
700			_eauthor. _934191
710			_aSpringerLink (Online service) _9111
856			_uhttp://springer.escuelaing.metaproxy.org/book/10.1007/978-1-84996-187-5 _yir a documento _qURL
942			_2ddc _cCF
999			_c14024 _d14024